{"id":16849,"date":"2018-12-13T10:01:01","date_gmt":"2018-12-13T18:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/?p=16849"},"modified":"2018-12-13T10:01:01","modified_gmt":"2018-12-13T18:01:01","slug":"a-founders-guide-to-startup-financial-modeling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/a-founders-guide-to-startup-financial-modeling\/","title":{"rendered":"A Founders Guide to Startup Financial Modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><span class=\"s1\">Jacob Loveless has been a member of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/\"><span class=\"s2\">Founders Network<\/span><\/a>\u00a0since June 2018. He\u2019s also been a prominent FN member in our <a href=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/mentoring-programs\/los-angeles\/\">Los Angeles Chapter<\/a>. To receive peer mentorship from Jacob and over 600 fellow Tech Founders, please\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/benefits\/\"><span class=\"s2\">request an invite<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and join our global network.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Building a financial model is one of the first steps you take once you have decided what your company is going to do as a business. Quite simply \u2013 how will you survive if you don\u2019t know what your costs and revenues will be? If it seems absurd that you should be able to \u201cguess\u201d with any level of accuracy what a customer would\/should\/could pay for a product that hasn\u2019t even been born yet: take some comfort in what world-famous statistician George Box said in his 1976 paper in the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Journal of the American Statistical Association<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cAll models are wrong, but some are useful\u201d\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/George_E._P._Box\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">George Box<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And this is exactly the point. The value of early financial models is the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">process<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of building them, not the numbers themselves. It\u2019s this act of coming face to face with questions you have not \/ don\u2019t want to face on the financial viability of your company that matters. Financial models are the cold bucket of water you need \u00a0\u2013 and I can assure you that you will come out more energized and stronger for having done it. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Prior to a life in startup land, I was a Partner at Cantor Fitzgerald, a leading Wall Street firm where I lived in models every day for 15 years. I have done things in excel that shouldn\u2019t be done. A 6GB spreadsheet? I\u2019ve been there. Multiple spreadsheets that spread calculations across machines? Check. An options model that required a full blow backend database in order to chew through the calculations? Been there and crashed said database. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the beauty of startup modeling is this:<\/span><b> the simpler they are the better they are.<\/b><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Model for Models<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In my experience, you will generate 3 classes of models over time, each one in increasing complexity. <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Model 0: The Market Model<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Model 1: The Investor Model<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Model 2: The Operating Model<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Market Model is your initial view into what the current market is for your product\/service. This is a \u2018top down\u2019 model and will introduce you to your competitors. You will come to grips with roughly how much money flows into you market, and who it flows to. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Investor Model is next. Here we are going to come to grips with our costs and the potential \u2018capture\u2019 of our customer spend. The key goals here are: <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Convince yourself that there is a real ability to move customer dollars from their wallet into your wallet. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Show that you can do so at a pace and cost that is reasonable\u00a0<\/span>and;<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Illustrate that the investment required provides you the required \u2018runway\u2019 to match the flow of money coming <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">into<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> your company and the flow coming out of your company.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The final model is the Operating model. This will start with you as the founder but will eventually be taken over by your CFO. The operating model is your reality guide. This is the actual forecasts that will increasingly benefit from hindsight. You will grow to both love and hate this model with increasing passion over time but recognize that this model is reality.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Model 0: The Market Model<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How big is the market your product exists in? Is this market growing or shrinking? Who are the players in this market today? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A common mistake here is to assume that you are creating a new market! No. There is no such thing as a new market. There are fundamental physics of economics and this is lesson 1. For a customer to spend money with you, you are convincing them to move that spend from something else. That something else is your market. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another common mistake? Assuming you will take X% of a massive market. A healthy dose of reality here is helpful. Let\u2019s work with an example. Let\u2019s say StartupCo has invented a new truly ground-breaking database that is 100x faster than anything the world has ever seen. Dope. What\u2019s the market look like? A quick visit over to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Statista<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> will help us out:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-16851\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-1.png\" alt=\"unnamed (1)\" width=\"601\" height=\"298\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-1.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-1-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-1-100x50.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 601px) 100vw, 601px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, the worldwide market for databases is ~50B. That\u2019s a big market, and best of all its growing. It\u2019s worth meeting our first acronym here: CAGR or Compound Annual Growth Rate. \u00a0This says what % the market increases in size (on average) year over year. To get the CAGR of a market we take the ending value, divide it by the begging value (to get the total % change over time) then adjust for the number of years and subtract 1. <\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_16852\" style=\"width: 522px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-16852\" class=\"wp-image-16852 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2.png\" alt=\"Jacob Loveless\" width=\"512\" height=\"299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-100x58.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-16852\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Calculate CAGR<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So now we have a rough feeling of the opportunity size today and roughly what that might look like 5 years out. To forward project the market size we can simply add in our CAGR and (while waving jazz hands) we now have something we can work with. So, our 50B market will grow to nearly 80B by 2022. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-16853\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-1.png\" alt=\"unnamed (2)\" width=\"512\" height=\"299\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-1.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-1-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-1-100x58.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Who plays in this market today? A quick Google search for \u201cdatabase market share\u201d brings us to here: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/db-engines.com\/en\/ranking\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/db-engines.com\/en\/ranking<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> .<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-16854\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-3.png\" alt=\"Jacob Loveless\" width=\"580\" height=\"351\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-3.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-3-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-3-100x61.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This data also seems reasonable given that Oracle (a massive company) is #1 (and #2) followed by Microsoft. A quick copy-paste into excel and we can use these scores to guesstimate market share:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-16855\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-4.png\" alt=\"unnamed (4)\" width=\"564\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-4.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-4-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-4-100x61.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 564px) 100vw, 564px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our next task here is to figure out how long it\u2019s taken a player to get to this position. This is very hard with conglomerates like Oracle where database revenue is rarely (if ever) broken out over time. So, a common trick is to find a pure play company (that is also public). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lucky for us such a player not only exists, but it substantial in size: MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB). Mongo went public in October of 2017 so we can access their financials to get their earnings. Our base guess says MongoDB (at 5.5% of the market) would have Q3\u201918 revenue of roughly 750 million. How? Well our base market share above say\u2019s Mongo owns ~5.5% of the market, a market that should have 2018 revenues of 54 billion, and we\u2019re looking at a single quarter (1\/4 of a full year). \u00a0So 54 billion * 5.5% % 4 ~= 750 million dollars.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-16856\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4.png\" alt=\"image4\" width=\"1124\" height=\"254\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4.png 1124w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4-300x68.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4-768x174.png 768w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4-1024x231.png 1024w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4-100x23.png 100w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image4-916x207.png 916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now let\u2019s have a look at the actual revenue from Mongo (using <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/MDB\/financials?p=MDB\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yahoo finance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-16874 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Marketing.png\" alt=\"Startup Financial Modeling\" width=\"686\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Marketing.png 766w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Marketing-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Marketing-100x37.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 686px) 100vw, 686px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, in the 3<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rd<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Quarter Mongo booked 57 million in revenue, not 750 million. Wait what? This first hit of cold water is an introduction to new product pricing and revenue capture. The market <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">might<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> be 54 billion, but the new players need to price to win accounts. A further realization is that our database market share is likely the percentage of customers in deployment not percentage of actual dollars.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using this new information we can conservatively estimate that our capture of actual dollars as a relationship to capture of market share will be off by a factor of 10-20x. Ouch. But no worries, it\u2019s still a <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">giant<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> market. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s now have a look at what is a realistic percentage of market share we can expect to get. Looking again to MongoDB (our pure play comparison) we see it was founded in 2007. We <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">could<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> try to find some historical market share data (and you should try) but it\u2019s unlikely we can get something clean. As an alternative we can apply a general model and see where things end up. We can assume that our starting market share is 0%, and we\u2019ll just plug in Mongo\u2019s ending state at 5.5% ~11 years later.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-16858\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10.png\" alt=\"image10\" width=\"1146\" height=\"502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10.png 1278w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10-1024x449.png 1024w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10-100x44.png 100w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/image10-916x401.png 916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1146px) 100vw, 1146px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now it\u2019s tempting to just connect the dots, but rarely does adoption work this way. If we are able to \u201cwow\u201d the market, we <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">could<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> assume the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">exponential<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> growth in the early years! But models are for reality, and the reality is traction is hard. Product market fit is hard. Scaling sales is hard. So, let\u2019s use the use the opposite function \u2013 the natural log.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A good way to model logarithmic growth is to simply multiply the year in business * ln (excels natural log function). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-16859\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed.png\" alt=\"Jacob Loveless\" width=\"474\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed.png 474w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-100x68.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 474px) 100vw, 474px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This will give us a logarithmic curve to base our model in. We then need 2 variables (only 1 of which really matters) which is what % of the market can we realistically capture in year 1? The second variable is our year over year growth multiplier. For now, just plug in 2 (200%) for growth. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s assume we capture 0.01% of the market in year 1 \u2013 or about 1 out of every 550 MongoDB customers. That seems reasonable although reasonable people may disagree.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-16860\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-2.png\" alt=\"unnamed (1)\" width=\"496\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-2.png 496w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-2-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-1-2-100x77.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 496px) 100vw, 496px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We then apply our growth function by using our logarithmic base * our growth rate * the previous year\u2019s market share. What we end up with is nonsense (1500% of the market) but we\u2019re going to fix that in just a second.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-16861\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-2.png\" alt=\"unnamed (2)\" width=\"512\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-2.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-2-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-2-2-100x49.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We can now solve for the growth rate that has us arrive at MongoDB\u2019s market share in year 11. To do this we use Excel\u2019s Goal Seek function.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-16876 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2.png\" alt=\"Startup Financial Modeling Excel Picture 2\" width=\"739\" height=\"328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2.png 1350w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2-768x341.png 768w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2-1024x455.png 1024w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2-100x44.png 100w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2-916x407.png 916w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-2-1280x569.png 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 739px) 100vw, 739px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We plug in our variables. In my working spreadsheet I want to set the value of the last year\u2019s market share to 5.5% (Mongo\u2019s market share) by adjusting my YoY growth rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-16879 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3.png\" alt=\"Startup Financial Modeling Excel Photo 3\" width=\"748\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3.png 1163w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3-1024x548.png 1024w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3-100x53.png 100w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Modeling-Photo-3-916x490.png 916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When you hit \u201cOK\u201d excel will run a number of calculations to find an optimal solution. In this case it gives a year over year rate of 1.14 (114%) and our chart now looks like what we may not want to see but need to see: a slow and steady struggle to find adoption followed by rapid growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-16877 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5.png\" alt=\"Startup Financial Modeling Picture 3.5\" width=\"664\" height=\"229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5.png 1122w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5-300x103.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5-768x265.png 768w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5-1024x353.png 1024w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5-100x34.png 100w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-3.5-916x316.png 916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our last needed estimate is what we expect 1% of market share is worth in terms of dollars. Our MongoDB example earlier shows us it\u2019s not quite what we expected, but again \u2013 it\u2019s a giant market. Let\u2019s assume MongoDB has revenues of 210 million in 2018. This doesn\u2019t seem unreasonable given they have 154 million in revenues going into Q4. Let\u2019s further assume their market share stays at ~5.5%. So that means that 5.5% of the market is worth 210 million, so 1% of market share is worth ~38 million dollars (1\/5.5 = .18 * 210 ~ 38 million). We can plug this in and now get our revenue model. We multiply 38 million * our calculated market share *100 and <\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-16865\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-6.png\" alt=\"unnamed (6)\" width=\"555\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-6.png 512w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-6-300x111.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/unnamed-6-100x37.png 100w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 555px) 100vw, 555px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What we see is a business doing roughly 210 million per year in revenue in 11 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-16878 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4.png\" alt=\"Startup Financial Modeling Picture 4\" width=\"704\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4.png 1200w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4-300x94.png 300w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4-768x240.png 768w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4-1024x320.png 1024w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4-100x31.png 100w, https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Startup-Financial-Modeling-Picture-4-916x286.png 916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 704px) 100vw, 704px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From here we now start to ask ourselves the hard questions. Are we able to charge 2x Mongo? 10x Mongo? If so, then maybe the fair value of 1% of market is 2x or 10x higher. By way of example, my friend Arthur Whitney\u2019s company makes Kdb+ with a market share 83x lower then Mongo \u2013 yet KX Systems was a very consistent 10mm per year company for nearly 25 years. Why? Kdb+ is ~100x more expensive than MongoDB but worth every penny \u2013 which is why its run by banks, exchanges and major utility companies. Can we grow faster than MongoDB? 2x faster? The key point of the market model is to bring these questions to the forefront. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In our next installment we\u2019ll look at the Investor Model and bring costs into the picture.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Good luck!<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jacob Loveless has been a member of\u00a0Founders Network\u00a0since June 2018. He\u2019s also been a prominent FN member in our Los Angeles Chapter. To receive peer mentorship from Jacob and over &#8230; <\/p>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/a-founders-guide-to-startup-financial-modeling\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":16867,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[1348],"table_tags":[],"class_list":["post-16849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tech-startup-advice","tag-los-angeles"],"acf":[],"featured_image_data":{"src":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Sevin-Stills-9.jpg","alt":"black founders","caption":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16849"},{"taxonomy":"table_tags","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foundersnetwork.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/table_tags?post=16849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}